Not much has happened in the last 5 weeks. I did create a reddit post and found a couple of leads with what changes I need to make with my model. I wasn’t able to get a big jump in my results though.
I did increase my NMR stake to 3.06 NMR for the 261 round. This is about $100 USD. I probably should have waited until I had a better model but we will have to see how it shakes out. So far, I have been lucky that the market is so hot that I make money even with a bad model.
Current Results
| Validation Sharpe | 0.6363 | 14.97% |
| Validation Corr | 0.0160 | 20.05% |
| Validation FNC | 0.0112 | 32.74% |
| Corr + MMC Sharpe | 0.5124 | 11.01% |
| MMC Mean | 0.0041 | 75.73% |
| Corr With Example Preds | 0.4026 |
| Round | Resolving | CORR | MMC | Payout | % |
| 256 | 4/21 | 0.0459 | 0.0051 | 0.0005 (4.59%) | 28th |
| 257 | 4/28 | 0.0678 | 0.0014 | 0.0007 (6.78%) | 23rd |
| 258 | 5/5 | 0.0194 | -0.0108 | 0.0002 (1.93%) | 7th |
| 259 | 5/12 | -0.0032 | -0.004 | 0.0 (0.29%) | 28th |
| 260 | 5/19 | -0.0128 | -0.0069 | -0.0001 (1.18%) | 21st |
| 261* | 5/26 | -0.028 | -0.0155 | -0.071 (2.32%) | 12th |
*Increase NMR stake to 3.06.
